Forget The Fed - Here's What Could Take The Market Out

Sometimes, "buy the rumor sell the news" makes complete sense. I step you through what's going to hit the options market after this one headline. And for Clients, a look at a "Blue Ocean" AV Play

Look, we know they’re going to cut.

But are they going to take a real hard look at the most recent GDP number, look at where the equity markets are sitting, and maybe start to hint at some hawkishness to give themselves Narrative wiggle room in the future.

Remember, Jerome’s got a legacy!

Let’s ignore macro and think about positioning.

Because today there was a headline that hit that could end up taking out the markets.

It’s not about the narrative itself, but how option positioning could shift and change how the market behaves. I’m early on this call, and a lot has to happen before it does.

In fact, it would most likely cause a hard bullish run.

Over lunch I made a video explaining what’s going down:

I’ve got one solid trade setup for Convex Spaces Clients, but before we hop behind the paywall, one quick note.

If you’re sweating bullets because of a Fed meeting, you’re either too zoomed in or you have on too much size. Odds are the market will stop you out twice before the actual move happens, so unless you’ve traded macro events, it’s OK to go take a walk.