Stop Zooming In So Far You Miss the Market
The market’s a little red right now, and that’s fine. What I’m seeing is traders getting way too zoomed in—tick by tick, opinion by opinion—arguing over whether AI has “topped.”
It hasn’t. But the hype cycle definitely has.
This is what happens when everyone’s already in the trade. We hit a peak narrative—too much anticipation, too much positioning—and the easy money dries up. That’s not bearish. That’s just how liquidity works.
If you find yourself overanalyzing every tick, step back. Use range bars instead of minute charts. Normalize your data by volatility, not time. When you do that, the market starts to make sense again. You’ll see how quickly things move through low-volume zones and how they gravitate back to high-volume shelves like magnets.
Right now, we’re probably setting up for a normal ABC correction—a pullback to the 20 EMA to shake out some bagholders. It’s nothing dramatic. Just the market resetting its bearings.
Narrative vs. Liquidity
There are really two markets running in parallel: one driven by liquidity, the other by storytelling.
From a liquidity standpoint, we’re still over-hedged. That’s actually bullish—it creates a mechanical support layer underneath prices.
From a narrative standpoint, though? The AI trade got too crowded.
Amazon, Oracle, and NVIDIA all did the same dance: announce big AI partnerships, gap higher, issue debt into that euphoria, and then fade. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
It doesn’t mean AI is dead. It means we’re digesting the mania. This is the pause before the next leg—not the peak of the mountain.
Rotation Is Happening Under the Surface
If you’re staring at the Nasdaq waiting for confirmation, you’re missing where money’s actually going. There’s quiet rotation everywhere:
Biotech (XBI) and Healthcare (XLV) just exploded after the FDA finally canned a few bureaucrats slowing the sector down.
Banks (XLF) are ripping as the supplemental leverage ratio rules loosen up—basically letting the big guys lever up again.
Energy (XLE) looks like it’s about to break out of a multi-year base.
AI isn’t the problem. It’s the bottleneck.
For two years, that bottleneck was chips. Now it’s electrons—actual power. The data centers in Louisiana and Texas don’t run on vibes; they run on natural gas, coal, and BTUs.
If you believe in AI, you should probably believe in XLE going to $100 next year. The bottleneck trade is physical now.
Silver: The Quiet AI Metal
Everyone talks about gold as a hedge against chaos, but silver might be the real asymmetric trade.
It’s an industrial metal used in solar panels, energy storage, and data center infrastructure—the hardware backbone of the AI economy. If the next wave of AI buildout is powered by electrons, silver is the wiring.
Gold? Probably due for a fade. The gold/silver ratio looks rough, and miners are starting to outperform the metal itself. That tells you where the smart money’s already rotating.
This Is a Stock Picker’s Market
The “Mag 7” are tired. Range-bound. Over-owned. And that’s fine.
Underneath, there’s a stealth bull market happening in energy, banks, healthcare, and even some boring infrastructure names that suddenly look sexy again because they touch data centers.
I’m watching:
Akamai, Datadog, and Appian on the software side.
Expedia and Las Vegas Sands as the travel complex rebounds.
GSAT and VSAT in satellites.
WMS (Advanced Drainage Systems) — yes, drainage pipes are now a data center play.
It’s a bizarre mix of themes, but that’s what rotations look like. You can’t buy “the market” here and expect it to work. You have to buy what’s actually working.
How I’m Trading It
Don’t chase breakouts. This is still a range market.
Fade extremes—trade from the outside in, not the inside out.
Sell premium into over-hedged conditions.
Stay patient for new leadership confirmation.
I’m looking for catch-up trades (AMD vs. NVIDIA), relative strength plays in banks and energy, and some contrarian silver exposure.
This is the part of the cycle where traders who only chase hype get chopped up—and traders who rotate early get paid.
The Big Picture
The AI narrative hasn’t ended—it’s evolving. The next winners won’t be the ones building chips, but the ones powering them.
If you zoom out far enough, you’ll see it: the shift from digital speculation to physical necessity. The “AI trade” isn’t going away. It’s just leaving the metaverse and showing up in the real world.
Timestamps
00:00 – 02:00 | Market open: Red session, traders too zoomed in, AI narrative peaking.
02:00 – 05:00 | Using range bars and volume normalization to remove chart noise.
05:00 – 08:00 | Volume-by-price and path dependency—how markets test support/resistance.
08:00 – 10:00 | Range expectations and over-hedged liquidity dynamics.
10:00 – 13:00 | Blow-off tops in AI megacaps (Amazon, Oracle, NVIDIA).
13:00 – 16:00 | Infrastructure unwind: CoreWeave, IREN, ENBIS.
16:00 – 19:00 | Sector rotation into biotech, healthcare, and banks.
19:00 – 22:00 | Energy and natural gas as new AI bottlenecks; XLE breakout.
22:00 – 25:00 | Silver as the “AI metal”; gold likely a short-term fade.
25:00 – 29:00 | Stock-picker’s market: software, travel, gold miners, satellites.
29:00 – 40:00 | Live viewer Q&A: Meta, Enbis, Gold, AMD, SMH inflows, Oklo, EOSC, Hertz, Roku, Palo Alto, Rivian.
40:00 – End | Wrap-up: rotation thesis, client offers, and next show announcement.
