🎃 Halloween Markets: Mag Seven Still Haunting the Shorts
Every big-cap except NVIDIA has now reported, and the numbers are obscene: Apple just dropped $102 billion in quarterly revenue; Amazon’s AWS is running a $132 billion annualized rate with a $200 billion backlog. Meta floated a $25 billion AI loan deal, and Google is still expanding its data-center footprint. If you’re calling this a bubble, you’re early — because the liquidity story has legs.
🌀 Vol That Refuses to Die
Despite that strength, VIX and VXN are green. Even with tariffs resolved, China risk muted, and the Fed threading its needle, the market won’t let go of hedging premium. We’re in a “spot-up, vol-up” regime — rallies are being bid with call-option demand that keeps vol elevated. When that reverses, expect a pullback and vol compression that makes plain-vanilla puts disappoint. Hence the case for put butterflies to play controlled retracements without bleeding theta or overpaying for convexity.
🧱 10% Scanner and Market Breadth
Running a simple Finviz scan of >$2B market cap and +10% weekly performance shows that beneath the surface, breadth is fine. Uranium plays like UEC and CCJ are still working; industrial metals like ATI look strong. Insurance oddities (Lemonade, Bright House) and biotechs are moving too. So the “poor breadth” narrative is lazy — risk is simply rotating.
🛢️ Venezuela, Oil, and the Macro Contradiction
Reports of U.S. military posturing in Venezuela should have spiked crude — but WTI is flat. If the intervention actually re-opens Venezuelan supply, that could mean lower energy prices and more room for rate cuts. Energy remains under-owned; XLE is still capped near $90. A clean break there targets $110 and re-awakens a sector whose total market cap is smaller than Microsoft’s.
🌯 Robot Burritos and the Restaurant Value Trap
Chipotle’s post-earnings dump killed sympathy names like CAVA and Sweetgreen, but there’s a longer story here. Sweetgreen’s automation pivot — robots assembling bowls — is the first sign of AI penetrating physical retail operations. Once capex and margins normalize, these names could stage a 2025 comeback. Watch for January ’27 LEAPS or poor-man’s covered calls around $30 as a low-stress way to accumulate.
🔥 Audience Q&A Highlights
Natural Gas as AI Fuel: Still dead money until price action confirms — watch GLNG > $43 for a real breakout.
Broadcom (AVGO): Calendar spread buy December / sell November calls to ride earnings vol skew.
Rare Earths: CRML and MP look early but structurally important; watch for failed breakdowns under $60 in MP.
Wayfair: Massive earnings recovery and multi-year breakout from the 2022–24 range.
Circle: IPO darling now fading toward $1.15 support — institutional volume will signal bottoming.
☁️ Closing Thoughts & Next Wave
Cybersecurity remains the quiet leader — Zscaler, Palo Alto, and Cloudflare all crushing post-earnings. Cloudflare’s new model lets sites charge AI agents to scrape their content — a monetization twist that could define the next AI cycle. Stay nimble, stay long liquidity, and don’t fade the future too early — even if it still looks a little spooky.
⏱️ Episode Breakdown
00:00 – Intro & Halloween Markets:
Steven opens the Halloween show with a tongue-in-cheek warning to anyone holding a “spooky” portfolio, then dives straight into the Mag Seven. With all the mega-caps except NVIDIA reporting, he dissects Apple’s $102 billion quarter, Amazon’s $132 billion AWS run-rate, and Meta’s new $25 billion AI-infrastructure loan. The takeaway: if you think this is a bubble, you’re early — liquidity is still flooding in.
05:00 – Volatility That Refuses to Die:
Even with strong earnings, tariff resolution, and a calm Fed, the VIX and VXN remain elevated. Steven walks through the bizarre “spot-up, vol-up” regime — where bullish call buying actually props up implied volatility — and sets the stage for a possible short-term pullback.
10:20 – Hedging With Put Butterflies:
He outlines a tactical hedge using Nasdaq put butterflies, ideal for traders who expect a reversion without a crash. The logic: time decay works in your favor, implied vol normalizes, and you avoid overpaying for convexity like you would with straight puts.
13:30 – Scanning for Strength:
Using a simple 10% weekly scan on stocks over $2 billion in market cap, Steven finds strength under the surface — uranium names like UEC and CCJ, industrials like ATI, and even oddballs like Lemonade and Bright House Financial. Breadth, he argues, isn’t bad — it’s just rotating.
17:10 – Venezuela & the Oil Paradox:
He pivots to geopolitics: the U.S. potentially striking Venezuela should have sent crude surging, yet oil stayed flat. If intervention actually reopens Venezuelan production, cheaper energy could give the Fed more flexibility for rate cuts. The energy sector remains under-owned and could rip once XLE clears $90.
20:21 – Chipotle Crash & Robot Burritos:
After Chipotle’s ugly earnings gap, Steven groups it with CAVA and Sweetgreen, coining the “slop-bowl ETF.” But he notes a deeper story — automation. Sweetgreen’s robot kitchen investments could eventually improve margins and spark a turnaround. He sketches option structures like poor-man’s covered calls for patient investors.
26:11 – Natural Gas as the AI Energy Play:
A viewer asks whether natural gas could be the next AI-infrastructure trade. Steven explores LNG exporters like Cheniere and Golar LNG, noting the thesis makes sense — cheap, dispatchable power near data centers — but price action hasn’t confirmed yet. “Put it on the back burner,” he quips.
31:07 – Broadcom Calendar Spread Setup:
Analyzing AVGO, Steven details a calendar spread (sell November calls, buy December) to exploit the pre-earnings vol skew. It’s a sophisticated bullish play that benefits from term-structure mispricing and a healthy pullback near the $360–$370 zone.
36:10 – Rare-Earth Revival:
He revisits the rare-earth metals trade — CRML, MP, and USA Rare Earth — noting that recent China policy easing caused a “buy-the-news” dip, but domestic processing and magnet-recycling plays still matter. A break-and-recover setup near $60 in MP could mark the next leg up.
41:08 – Wayfair Win & Circle’s Slide:
A listener who followed the earlier Wayfair setup reports a huge win. Steven celebrates, then turns to Circle, an IPO-era casualty testing $1.15 support. The discussion becomes a quick lesson in failed breakdowns and institutional volume signals.
45:41 – Wrap-Up & Cybersecurity Alpha:
Steven closes with a bullish call on cybersecurity and cloud software — Zscaler, Palo Alto Networks, and Cloudflare all breaking out. Cloudflare’s new feature that lets websites charge AI scrapers could be the next big monetization wave. He signs off with his trademark humor: “If it’s on the screen, it has to be true — the best trading newsletter on the internet.”
