✅ Transcript Summary (Convex Spaces Morning Market Update)
Market Context
Market has been heavy, but the broader structure still looks like a range reset, not a major trend break.
NASDAQ is retesting the October “rug pull” zone and sitting on a Swing-Anchored VWAP + 100EMA confluence, which could produce one more shove lower.
% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day MA is around 36%, a healthy reset inside a rising long-term trend.
Surface-level: some megacaps are holding (AAPL, AMZN, TSLA), some are breaking but approaching support (MSFT ~480), some are deeply oversold (META).
Equal-Weight View
Equal-weight S&P and equal-weight NASDAQ continue to nose under support.
Under-the-hood damage is already substantial; breadth reset is advanced.
Interpretation
Not calling a bottom—calling the start of a bottoming process.
“One more rug pull” is still on deck, but the market is stretched enough that upside mean reversion has edge.
Meta-Specific Notes
Meta tends to bottom through a process—multi-week resets like taper tantrum, last summer, etc.
After this overshoot down, a natural bounce could push price into the 620–632 zone, where:
declining 20EMA catches up
Swing-Anchored VWAP sits
prior structure lives
Setup Philosophy
You want to be early, not perfect.
Expect chop → bounce → chop.
Use a structure that:
benefits from time decay
allows adding on further weakness
doesn’t require immediate directional precision
✅ META Trade Setup (Weekly Call Calendar at 625)
1. Structure
A call calendar using next-week short calls and the following week’s long calls.
Sell:
META 625 call – exp: Nov 28, 2025
Buy:
META 625 call – exp: Dec 5, 2025
Cost: ~$3.18 (reasonable fill)
2. Why this works now
Nobody wants calls right now, so upside vol is underpriced.
You capture:
Short-term IV decay on the short call
Directional upside via the long call
The trade is bullish, but not a leveraged chase.
Profit zone centered around 625–632, where key technical levels converge.
3. Expected Pathing
Meta rebounds into 625–632 → calendar pays nicely.
If it chops sideways → time decay works for you.
If it sells off → you can add lower-strike calendars (ex: at 615) to build a double-calendar for a bigger base.
4. If It Rips Immediately
A one-day squeeze above 650 would hurt (you go net short temporarily), but:
declining 20EMA
VWAP overhead
make a straight-up melt unlikely.
5. If Meta Dumps Another -10 to -12 Points
Add the same structure at lower strikes (e.g., 615).
Creates a double-calendar:
Increasing theta
Wider profit envelope
Stronger bounce-play gamma into December
6. Hidden Benefit: Forced Long
If META doesn’t reclaim 625 next week, you are left with:
Long December 625 calls for ~3.18 cost
B/E ~628
Totally reasonable upside target into December.
This becomes a cheap swing long if the calendar portion collapses.
✅ Bottom Line
Out-of-the-money weekly call calendars on META (and ORCL, AMZN) offer asymmetric reversion-to-mean upside with controlled risk.
Plays the bottom-formation process
Benefits from chop
Lets you scale into further weakness
Doesn’t require bottom-ticking
Primary Target Zone: 625–632
Primary Mechanism: Time decay + modest bounce
Edge: Underpriced upside volatility + technical reversion point overhead
