If you’re trading what everyone else is staring at—the quantum/satellite/rocket basket—you’re playing musical chairs in a crowded room. The AI-adjacent “future tech” names are parabolic, liquidity is sloshing, and the temptation to short tops is strong. That’s also why it’s hard.
AI Capex: The Whip-Crack Risk
The hyperscalers’ spend is the handle; mid-cap infra names are the whip tip. A tiny change in 2025–26 data-center budgets can sling smaller vendors 20–40% in either direction. That reflexivity cuts both ways. Great trades will exist here—but if you only watch this narrative, you’ll miss easier money elsewhere.
Why Shorting Parabolics Is a Knife Fight
Rigetti is the case study. Even “obvious” failed breakouts keep getting bid as shorts cover and options dealers rebalance. The path from “straight up” to “straight down” rarely exists; more often you get range, premium decay, and then resolution. If you’re trying to nail tops with puts at rich IV, expect pain.
A Contrarian Take on Gold
I’m tempted to fade gold—not on macro sermons, but on positioning and volatility behavior. If gold’s options vol (GVZ) finally spikes alongside one more price exhaustion, December puts for a reversion can make sense. That’s a tactical, statistical trade—not a religion.
MicroStrategy ≈ Call Option on Bitcoin
MSTR’s financing structure injects leverage into the equity. When BTC trends hard, MSTR outperforms; when BTC chops, MSTR “time-decays.” Until crypto trends cleanly, don’t be shocked if the equity premium grinds lower.
Where Rotation Looks Better
Everyone’s toddler-brain is rattled by AI. Meanwhile, other corners are quietly breaking out:
Select Software: IGV sits near highs. Yes, some legacy names (think: “BlackBerry of AI”) look vulnerable, but leaders tied to real enterprise value are pushing.
Cybersecurity: CIBR and individual cloud-security names show clean patterns. AI is shipping a lot of fast-and-loose code; somebody has to secure it.
Biotech & Genomics: XBI and ARCG are breaking out from multi-quarter bases. AI + biology is a real flywheel: better models, cleaner targets, faster trials. Calls 6+ months out, ~20-delta, keep risk defined while you let the thesis work.
Psychedelics: PSIL shows a rounded bottom. Policy and reimbursement debates are noisy, but price is hinting at renewed attention.
Power Generation & Grid: The datacenter build isn’t “done,” even if the narrative breaks. Turbines, conversion, electrification—backlogs and reratings can still push these.
A Few Names I’m Watching
DNA (Ginkgo): Biotech-robotics proxy with underappreciated data assets and automation. If it finally clears, the upside can reset the story.
RKT (Rocket): Watching for a pullback into ~14.50 with confluence (rising 200-EMA, anchored VWAPs, prior pivot). If it tags the level, calls can make sense.
GEV (GE Vernova): Classic power-gen beneficiary. Structured bull call spreads out to January keep risk tight while you ride backlog/award momentum.
Bottom line: You don’t need to out-duel the crowd in a five-minute tape. Rotate to the spots just starting their run, where options are still reasonably priced and the tape isn’t a knife fight.
If you want the exact tickers, expirations, and strikes I’m using, join at convexspaces.com—I share the precise structures and risk plans there.
Timestamps
00:00:14 Opening; why the indexes don’t matter right now
00:00:50 Future-tech mania (quantum/satellite/rockets) and crowding
00:01:20 The “narrative unwind” risk inside AI
00:01:29 Shorting parabolics is harder than it looks
00:01:35 Examples on deck: ASTS, gold, MSTR, and under-the-radar sectors
00:02:08 Oracle margin scare → hyperscaler capex sensitivity
00:03:12 AI capex echoes of 1999 overbuild (but with different plumbing)
00:04:24 The whip-crack: why mid-caps move more than mega-caps
00:05:03 iREN as a parabolic capex proxy; convert issuance and reflexivity
00:06:18 Why the best trades may be away from the main AI narrative
00:06:32 Rigetti: anatomy of a tough short (failed breaks, short covers)
00:08:58 Support “magnet” levels and why breakdowns keep failing
00:10:27 Other popular short targets; trend vs. reversion conditioning
00:10:59 Reference to my 15-min strategy video for fading parabolics
00:11:35 Convertible/ATM games: iREN and ASTS playbook
00:12:38 ASTS: ATM drop → squeeze → Verizon catalyst → blow-off
00:13:36 If you can’t babysit the tape, don’t day-trade these names
00:14:24 Gold: why I still want the short—but only on vol/positioning trigger
00:15:43 Watching GVZ: looking for that final vol pop
00:16:30 Purely a liquidity/positioning bet, not macro dogma
00:17:41 Gold stretched vs. 20-week MA: prior spike analogs
00:18:10 MicroStrategy: failed breakout and premium vs. BTC spot/NAV
00:20:05 Why MSTR behaves like a decaying call when BTC chops
00:21:07 Large-cap tech posture: AMZN/Microsoft/Apple/NVDA holding up
00:22:16 AI-derivative names extended (PL, IREN, quantum, etc.)
00:22:48 The shiny-object problem—and where to look instead
00:22:49 IGV at highs; software leaders vs. laggards
00:24:05 CIBR: the security bid as AI ships fast
00:25:31 Psychedelics (PSIL): rounded bottom, policy noise, price signal
00:26:48 Health care/biotech: XLV relative turn, XBI/ARCG breakouts
00:28:17 How to structure biotech exposure with longer-dated calls
00:28:49 Quick picks & the pitch: DNA, service details at convexspaces.com
00:30:06 RKT setup around ~14.50 if it tags confluence
00:30:53 GEV/Power-gen: backlog rerates and grid build tailwinds
00:31:24 Power, turbines, electrification—the build isn’t done
00:32:07 Example structure: Jan bull call spread in GEV
00:32:31 Add power-gen + nat-gas complex to your watchlist
