The market isn’t one bubble—it’s a dozen
Today felt like the perfect snapshot of 2025: AMD ripped on OpenAI headlines, and the tape stayed relentlessly risk-on. But this isn’t 1999 or even 2021. Instead of one giant tech bubble, we have multiple small, narrative-driven bubbles living inside the same AI “substrate.” Think Coca-Cola: same syrup and water (AI), different pockets of fizz—quantum, nuclear, drones/VTOL, applied AI in healthcare, and of course semis. Each pocket can surge, pop, and respawn.
Why this isn’t 2021’s Mentos moment
2021 was a single, synchronized detonation—drop a Mentos in the Coke and everything explodes at once. Today is more selective and rotational. That makes outright top-calling tough. Options are your “one foot out the door” risk tool, but timing blanket shorts is a widow-maker when strength rotates.
The Priceline Model: price ↔ liquidity, powered by catalysts & narratives
I use a reflexive map I call the Priceline Model:
Price only moves when liquidity shifts (on the bid/offer).
Catalysts (news) and Narratives (the story fundamentals tell) matter only insofar as they change liquidity—and then price can reflexively change liquidity again (stop runs, chase flows, hedging feedback loops).
Application: Watch how price behaves into/after “big” news. If AMD can’t build on a +30% catalyst month—liquidity didn’t follow; local top risk rises. If call demand keeps creeping in and price grinds higher, the bubble continues.
Rotation watch: the slumbering giants (MAG7) may be next
While the degen pockets ran, some MAG7 names have been dead money. A simple rotation could be buyers parking back into MSFT/AMZN/META as a “safe” risk container versus bonds. Technically, several look ready for pops back to prior pivots. This is the kind of slow-grind liquidity shift that extends bull legs without fireworks.
American dynamism: when policy becomes a catalyst
We’ve already seen the playbook with MP Materials (rare earths) and Intel—equity-style government support to reshore strategic supply chains. Expect more targeted onshoring in critical minerals and possibly essential pharma. The trade is often in the structure (e.g., warrants, LEAPs) more than the commons when liquidity is thin or secondaries bite. Creativity matters.
Japan, yen-gold, and a possible “sell-the-news” in gold
Post-election policy vibes in Japan lean more equity-friendly, with currency/monetary implications that helped push gold parabolically higher (yen terms and dollar terms). On a weekly view, gold sitting ~20–24% above its 50-week MA has historically preceded cooling phases. Bears won’t be loved here, but put calendars/butterflies can express a tactical fade without heroic timing.
The mortgage-rate trade: crowded, then unwound
After the Fed cut, traders crowded into “mortgage easing” winners (refi, MSRs). The Rocket (RKT) breakout faded hard as the narrative ran ahead of realized rate moves. I’m stalking a swing-bottom setup, but want stop-clears and chop first, then re-apply the “buy the rumor into the next cut” template.
Opendoor (OPEN): volatility is the trade
OPEN coiled for ~two weeks between roughly 7.85–8.85 while short-dated options bled. With Oct monthlies implying a ~$2 move, a clean range break in the next two weeks likely pays either way. Directional calls/puts if you have a view; otherwise, express long vol.
Q&A lightning
GOOGL: Don’t over-read a routine pre-earnings drift; single-name “VIXes” rise mechanically into mega-cap earnings cycles.
SMCI: Messy but if semis/infrastructure keep catching flows, dated call calendars (e.g., long March, short January) can give convexity without bleeding weekly gamma.
ALB / materials: More mean-reversion prone, but metals tied to AI infrastructure (aluminum transmission, palladium, rare earths) keep benefiting from the broader “physical AI” build-out.
Bottom line: Until price consistently fades bold catalysts across these mini-bubbles, it’s still game on. Use the Priceline Model to monitor when narrative heat stops pulling real liquidity.
Nothing here is investment advice. Educational only.
Timestamps
00:00 — Opening, AMD/OpenAI pop, “mini-bubbles” vs one big bubble
03:40 — Coke & Mentos analogies: why 2025 ≠ 2021
06:39 — The Priceline Model: Price–Liquidity–Catalyst–Narrative (reflexivity)
09:36 — How to spot tops: bold news vs weak follow-through (AMD example)
11:32 — Rotation set-ups: Unity as a template; MAG7 “slumbering giants”
15:23 — American dynamism: MP, INTC, and future onshoring angles (critical minerals/pharma)
20:36 — Japan election vibes, yen-gold, and a tactical gold fade setup
25:38 — Structures for shorting gold: calendars/butterflies vs naked puts
25:47 — Mortgage-rate trade unwind; RKT plan (let pain exhaust, then recycle the cut-cycle)
29:35 — OPEN coil: implied ~$2 move into Oct monthlies; long-vol rationale
33:49 — Q&A: GOOGL IV into earnings; SMCI call calendars; ALB target & materials theme
39:46 — Wrap & CTA to ConvexSpaces.com (free+paid, tools, indicators)
