The AI trade just found an unlikely hero—and it’s not Nvidia. Oracle shocked Wall Street with a 300% jump in backlog, sending its stock ripping higher and forcing fund managers to scramble. What looks like a bubble might actually be just the “third inning,” and ignoring it could be costly.
But while everyone’s hypnotized by shiny AI headlines, other corners of the market are quietly cracking. Housing inventories in Texas and Florida are surging, travel stocks are rolling over, and consumer weakness is creeping in. Even gold, stretched and volatile, is setting up for tactical option plays.
In this episode, we unpack where the real opportunities lie: when to ride the bubble, when to step aside, and where to press shorts. From AI infrastructure to nicotine’s renaissance, to robotics as the next wave—this show is all about finding the edge in a market that’s splitting between winners and losers.
This episode of Convex Spaces dives deep into the state of today’s markets, zeroing in on Oracle’s shocking 40% surge and what it means for the broader AI-fueled tech bubble. The discussion frames Oracle’s backlog-driven rally as “early innings” of a liquidity wave that money managers can’t afford to miss.
From there, the show moves into smart bearish bets: rather than shorting the AI narrative, Steven highlights weaker corners of the market—Adobe, housing stocks in the Sunbelt, and travel plays like Booking and Carnival. The gold market gets a technical breakdown with a put calendar strategy, and defensive opportunities pop up in nicotine stocks like Philip Morris, contrasted against fading alcohol plays.
The show closes with a look toward robotics and lidar—Ouster and Serve Robotics—as compelling setups in an under-the-radar sector that could become the next momentum trade.
🕑 Key Timestamps
00:34 – Market Openers: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Oracle’s surprise backlog-driven surgeconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
02:30 – Early Bubble Dynamics: Why Oracle’s rally may just be the “third inning” of the AI tradeconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
06:15 – Gold Trade Setup: Using put calendars and the GVZ (gold VIX) to play a pullbackconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
09:30 – Equal-Weight Nasdaq: Short opportunities outside the AI bubble; Adobe as an exampleconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
13:30 – Housing Weakness: Texas & Florida inventory, builder stocks DHI and Lennarconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
18:00 – Travel Stocks: Carnival, RCL, Booking as soft spots tied to consumer weaknessconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
20:14 – Nicotine Shift: Philip Morris and Altria as “defensive” plays; alcohol stocks falteringconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
23:33 – Nvidia Setup: Watching for failed breakouts and short signalsconvex-spaces-lunch-break,-sep-…
26:36 – Robotics & Lidar: Ouster and Serve Robotics gap-fill potential
